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The First International Conference on Screening for Lung Cancer

Location: Weill Medical College of Cornell University

1300 York Avenue, New York NY 10021

Workshop 3 - Possible approaches to evaluation of screening regimes

Mission:To produce a statement of whether the evaluation of a screening regimen (relative to no screening) requires the use of an RCT in place of, or in addition to, the non-comparative trial represented by the ELCAP or a suitable modification of this. Also, a brief justification.
Chair:Robert Smith
Members:KJohn Fields, Barry Brown, Alvin Mushlin, Tomotaka Sobue, Marek Kimmel, James Hanley, David Burns, Christine Berg
Topics Along the Way:
  1. Is it true that fundamental to all screening for lung cancer is the way in which curability is a function of the size of the cancer at diagnosis. Is the effectiveness of any particular regimen of screening implicit in the size-specific rates of curability together with the size-distribution of cancers diagnosed under this regimen?
  2. Related to this, is it true that the scientifically ideal RCT would be conducted within a screened cohort, would focus on the diagnosed cases of LC, and would contrast immediate resection to leaving the case "alone" until, if ever, symptoms prompt diagnosis. Would such a trial indeed address both the fundamental issue of curability and the issue specific to the particular regimen at screening? Subissue: to what extent would such a study be distorted by diagnostic biopsies causing early spread?
  3. Is it true that when the RCT contrast is between screening and no screening, the study no longer addresses the fundamental issue, and that insofar as the latter remains unsettled, each new regimen requires a new RCT?
  4. Getting back to #2: a) Would the scientifically ideal study actually focus on radiologically suspected but unbiopsied cases of possible lung cancer, with the study arm involving resection without biopsy? In other words, as for actual practice, does the radiologic finding per se actually represent the proper "decision node" for resection, bypassing biopsy? b) Given that an RCT in the ideal domain is unethical, and given the concern for "overdiagnosis" in respect to the smallest tumors in particular, is not the quasi-experimental counterpart of that scientifically ideal RCT actually required? With informed consent, most patients would opt for immediate resection but some would not, especially when the tumor is small - with the choice random conditionally on the size of the tumor.
  5. What credibility can be accorded to the ELCAP results so long as they address curability on the premise of freedom from "overdiagnosis."

Worshop Expanded Summary Statement

Three possible evaluation strategies were discussed in detail including the strengths, limitations, and implications of a choice of one design compared with the others. The currently recommended entry criteria for enrollment are: current or former (less than ten years since quitting) smokers, age 50 or more, and healthy enough to withstand thoracotomy (as determined by pulmonary function test). Such entry criteria are critical since an extension to other population groups may require a new trial according to the orthodox view. The randomized clinical trial (RCT) with lung cancer mortality as its endpoint is the design that offers protection against the unknown influence of suspected biases such as selection bias, lead-time bias, length bias sampling, and over-diagnosis. It was recognized that such a trial could require 80,000 individuals to be randomized to an active population (AP) or a control group (passive population (PP). A baseline screening and four annual repeat screenings with a follow-up period of 8 years after the last screen would be performed. Earliest opportunity for definitive data from such a trial, if it were to begin in 2000, is between 2009 and 2013 (a total of at least 3 rounds with a minimum of 5 years of follow-up). The large sample size is based on an unanticipated, but possibly worst case scenario of low benefit (10% mortality reduction) and high contamination in the PP. The benefit of such a design is that the intervention would be evaluated without the influence of unknown biases. However, its high financial cost could lead to greater compromises (e.g., unknown threats to power due to erosion of the integrity of the randomization over time, in particular contamination; lack of acceptance of the study conclusion; new technology overtaking the technology under evaluation, a potential lack of participants because of publicity about the presumed superior efficacy of CT). A RCT using a surrogate endpoint still provides protection against selection bias but provides an earlier answer at lower costs. The surrogate must be a direct goal of screening (e.g., a more favorable stage-shift (TNM), tumor size, % positive nodes, histology) and strongly predictive of mortality. In such a trial, 40,000 subjects would be required. A baseline and four annual repeat screenings would be required with a follow-up period of at least 3 years after the last screen. The earliest opportunity for definitive data, if the trial were to begin in 2000, would be between 2005 and 2008. While issues related to access to control-group endpoints would need to be resolved the benefits of the design include lower cost and more rapidly available data regarding the question of test efficacy. The concern about this approach includes the significant investment in time, the magnitude of potential error which may be difficult to quantify, lack of consensus about interpretation of end results-some policy makers may not accept the end result based on an approach that depends on predictors of mortality. The third design, the non-comparative or quasi-comparative design, would require 8,000 to 10,000 individuals. It would require a baseline and a single annual repeat. Follow-up for both surrogate and mortality endpoints would be done, but only on the estimated 300 to 400 malignancies. The earliest opportunity for definitive data, if the study were to begin in 2000, would be 2002. Issues to be addressed would include access to comparison groups (PLCO screening study or older studies) and matching by relevant factors (e.g., histology, age, smoking history). The benefit of this design is that the data would be available more quickly and be obtained at a lower cost. In summary, it was concluded that:
  • At a minimum, the concept that funding for multiple designs should be considered rather than relying only on a single strategy to evaluate lung cancer screening. Further, the urgency of the public health problem warrants an immediate response by health agencies and professional organizations to support organized data collection and evaluation of the potential benefit and costs of all study designs to answer important questions.
  • A RCT with a death endpoint offers the most unbiased answer, but is not embraced with enthusiasm due to costs (mostly time) and the realistic appraisal that precision erodes over time. In some countries, a decision to offer lung cancer screening may require results from a RCT with a mortality endpoint.
  • A RCT with surrogate endpoints is more attractive because of its inherent economy. Workgroup members were troubled by uncertainty that the intermediate endpoints accurately indicated mortality. It was also recognized that if one is willing to accept a study with surrogate endpoints, one should be able to accept a non-comparative study.
  • A non-comparative design could be used, following similar selection criteria. Data should be accumulated from the international sites currently performing helical CT studies and molecular analysis of airway cell markers. Common data collection procedures for all centers should be organized. This effort should be multi-disciplinary in order to measure all end-results (detection data and follow-up) and address harms as well as benefits, including psycho social issues. Models for efficacy and cost-effectiveness of surrogate endpoint and non-comparative designs should be developed. Efforts should be made to seek to answer questions about selection effect, lead time bias, length bias sampling (and overdiagnosis). Realistic estimates of the influence of potential biasing factors may result in greater applicability of alternative designs using comparative data (e.g., National Cancer Institute trial data such as PLCO, SEER registry, etc.)
It was felt that it was important to seek leadership from the appropriate specialty organizations (e.g., American College of Radiology, American College of Pathology, American Thoracic Society) to insure quality assurance for helical CT and computerized molecular analysis of airway cell markers, guidelines for these tests, subsequent interventions, and pathology


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