The First International Conference on Screening for Lung Cancer
Location: Weill Medical College of Cornell University
1300 York Avenue, New York NY 10021
Workshop 3 - Possible approaches to evaluation of screening regimes
| Mission: | To produce a statement of whether the evaluation of a screening regimen (relative to no screening) requires the use of an RCT in place of, or in addition to, the non-comparative trial represented by the ELCAP or a suitable modification of this. Also, a brief justification. |
| Chair: | Robert Smith |
| Members: | KJohn Fields, Barry Brown, Alvin Mushlin, Tomotaka Sobue, Marek Kimmel, James Hanley, David Burns, Christine Berg | Topics Along the Way: |
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Worshop Expanded Summary StatementThree possible evaluation strategies were discussed in detail including the strengths, limitations, and implications of a choice of one design compared with the others. The currently recommended entry criteria for enrollment are: current or former (less than ten years since quitting) smokers, age 50 or more, and healthy enough to withstand thoracotomy (as determined by pulmonary function test). Such entry criteria are critical since an extension to other population groups may require a new trial according to the orthodox view. The randomized clinical trial (RCT) with lung cancer mortality as its endpoint is the design that offers protection against the unknown influence of suspected biases such as selection bias, lead-time bias, length bias sampling, and over-diagnosis. It was recognized that such a trial could require 80,000 individuals to be randomized to an active population (AP) or a control group (passive population (PP). A baseline screening and four annual repeat screenings with a follow-up period of 8 years after the last screen would be performed. Earliest opportunity for definitive data from such a trial, if it were to begin in 2000, is between 2009 and 2013 (a total of at least 3 rounds with a minimum of 5 years of follow-up). The large sample size is based on an unanticipated, but possibly worst case scenario of low benefit (10% mortality reduction) and high contamination in the PP. The benefit of such a design is that the intervention would be evaluated without the influence of unknown biases. However, its high financial cost could lead to greater compromises (e.g., unknown threats to power due to erosion of the integrity of the randomization over time, in particular contamination; lack of acceptance of the study conclusion; new technology overtaking the technology under evaluation, a potential lack of participants because of publicity about the presumed superior efficacy of CT). A RCT using a surrogate endpoint still provides protection against selection bias but provides an earlier answer at lower costs. The surrogate must be a direct goal of screening (e.g., a more favorable stage-shift (TNM), tumor size, % positive nodes, histology) and strongly predictive of mortality. In such a trial, 40,000 subjects would be required. A baseline and four annual repeat screenings would be required with a follow-up period of at least 3 years after the last screen. The earliest opportunity for definitive data, if the trial were to begin in 2000, would be between 2005 and 2008. While issues related to access to control-group endpoints would need to be resolved the benefits of the design include lower cost and more rapidly available data regarding the question of test efficacy. The concern about this approach includes the significant investment in time, the magnitude of potential error which may be difficult to quantify, lack of consensus about interpretation of end results-some policy makers may not accept the end result based on an approach that depends on predictors of mortality. The third design, the non-comparative or quasi-comparative design, would require 8,000 to 10,000 individuals. It would require a baseline and a single annual repeat. Follow-up for both surrogate and mortality endpoints would be done, but only on the estimated 300 to 400 malignancies. The earliest opportunity for definitive data, if the study were to begin in 2000, would be 2002. Issues to be addressed would include access to comparison groups (PLCO screening study or older studies) and matching by relevant factors (e.g., histology, age, smoking history). The benefit of this design is that the data would be available more quickly and be obtained at a lower cost. In summary, it was concluded that:
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